## The problem

Advances in AI and biotechnology are increasing the risk of engineered pathogens. Two worst-case scenarios drive the urgency:

- **Wildfire:** A highly transmissible, lethal pathogen spreads before we can stop transmission. Built-environment defenses (far-UVC, glycols) are still prototype-stage. PPE stockpiles are small, often the wrong type. Vaccines and antivirals take months. There's a multi-week delay from outbreak to working diagnostics.
- **Stealth:** A transmissible pathogen with a long incubation period spreads undetected. Metagenomic sequencing (SecureBio Detection) is great but not at scale yet, and wastewater is sensitive to shedding route.

Wearables are a credible stopgap for both. They're already ubiquitous. Many wearable companies sell their data as real-time continuous feeds. Many pathogens [show perceptible physiological signatures](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9218991/) during incubation.

## What winning looks like

Within three years, the next-pandemic detection pipeline is operational:

- Critical workforce sectors can identify infected employees within 24-48h of physiological signal onset, removing them from shared environments.
- Population-level anomaly detection via wearables triggers targeted nasal-swab campaigns within days of stealth-pathogen circulation.
- The system is kept warm by continuous use against flu and Covid in normal years.

## Why now

The data is available now (30-40% wearable penetration, sellable real-time feeds). The detection algorithms exist (anomaly detection on physiological time-series is a mature ML field). The window is the political and economic one: standing up data-sharing agreements with Apple, Google, hospitals, and government partners takes months that we won't have during an outbreak.

Pre-Covid Taiwan and Singapore stood up digital fence and exposure-notification systems in weeks because they had pre-existing infrastructure. The US did not. Build the pre-existing infrastructure now.

## What this could look like in practice

- **Startup:** "Palantir for pathogen-agnostic early warning." Build the detection pipeline and integration as a SaaS for hospitals, employers, hedge funds, and public-health authorities. Sell into Palantir or convince them to stand it up as a new business line.
- **Project inside an existing org:** Stand up the data layer, anomaly detection, and escalation protocols inside the CDC, DARPA RTI DETECT, or a similar agency.
- **Partnership project:** Build a wearable diagnostic feed integrated into a single hospital system, DoD, or VA health program as the proof-of-concept.

## Who should do this

- **Profile:** Strong product or ML chops, comfort with regulated health data, willingness to navigate government and big-tech partnerships.
- **Archetype:** Entrepreneur or Operator (with comfort in policy and data work).
- **Commitment:** full-time, 6+ months minimum. Realistically 2+ years to operational deployment.

## How to start

1. Get access to a sample of real wearable data via an opt-in app pulling from HealthKit, Google Fit, or Fitbit APIs, or by buying from a data provider that already sells.
2. Build and benchmark population-level anomaly detection on known pathogens using historical 2019-2020 data (flu and Covid). Verify it would have flagged the Covid signal early.
3. Pick one beachhead user (a hospital, a hedge fund, a critical-workforce employer) and prototype the detection-to-action pipeline end-to-end, including the escalation channel.

## Source and endorsements

- **Field strategy:** BlueDot pandemic response field strategy. (Link TBD.)
- **Partners and collaborators:** [DARPA RTI DETECT](https://www.rti.org/insights/how-wearable-sensors-can-change-course-covid-19-pandemic) (existing program on wearables for infectious disease detection), SecureBio Detection, Biobot (metagenomic and wastewater surveillance counterparts), Blueprint Bio.
- **Currently pursued by:** Not yet.

## Get involved

- **Funding pathway:** BlueDot exploration grant up to $20K to scope, career transition grant up to $60K for full commitment. Larger raises ($500K+) via Coefficient Giving once the pipeline is de-risked.
- **Advisors and introductions:** BlueDot can connect you to people at DARPA RTI DETECT, SecureBio, Biobot, and Blueprint Bio.
- **Contact:** dewi@bluedot.org


Wearables are already on 30-40% of the US population, and many pathogens leave detectable physiological signals during incubation. There's no operational pipeline today from pandemic start to wearable-based diagnosis, triage, contact tracing, or stealth-pathogen detection. Build it before we need it.

Prepare wearables as stopgap diagnostics for the next pandemic