Technical trends driving AI progress

Intelligence Explosion

Will AI progress accelerate even faster?

Map the threat landscape

Prioritising threat pathways

Option 1: Power concentration

Option 2: Gradual disempowerment

Option 3: Catastrophic pandemics

Option 4: Critical infrastructure collapse

Imagining a better future

What future do you want?

Steering the race to AGI

The characters

What might success look like?

Layer 1: Prevent dangerous AI training

Layer 2: Constrain dangerous AI capabilities

Layer 3: Withstand dangerous AI actions

Building defences

Choose your focus

Go deep in one area

Make a plan

Optional advice

Next steps: Deeper-dive courses

Thank you!

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You’re the product of 8,000 generations of humans. You were born into the civilization they built, with all its magic, beauty and flaws. Their decisions shape every aspect of our world.

We’re only the latest generation of humans, but we’re living through one of the most significant technological transformation in the history of the universe.

Our decisions today will have an immense impact on our own future, and the future of all our descendants.

We may still be early in humanity’s story. We have an amazing opportunity to steer this story towards wonder, greatness and kindness. But that's not guaranteed.

In this unit, you’ll visualise a future to aspire towards, you’ll explore how AI is shaping that future, and you’ll analyse the dilemmas and coordination failures we must overcome to steer towards a better future.

Throughout the rest of the course, you will:
- analyse the technical trends of AI progress and what this implies for future AI capabilities,
- develop a step-by-step story (”kill chain”) for how those capabilities could cause harm to humanity,
- apply a “defence in depth” framework to analyse what needs to be built to defend against your kill chain and steer AI towards safe and beneficial outcomes,
- generate your own action plan for how you'll start contributing to making AI go well.


In so many ways, human lives have been transformed in the past few centuries. In many ways, perhaps most, it’s been for the better. However, there’s a huge amount of work left to be done to steer our future towards wiser, kinder, happier outcomes.

How old are you? Add 20 years to that number. Imagine a week in your life when you’re that years old, where you’re living a good, happy life. Consider going for a short walk to reflect on this. Then write down your thoughts below.

_We appreciate that this is quite a personal question! In general, your exercise responses are accessible to the BlueDot team and your group facilitator. If you would rather note down your thoughts in a private doc then you're very welcome._


What does a better future for yourself look like? 

Assuming current population trends, over the next 20 years we will welcome 2.7 billion new humans to our global community, and 1.5 billion will pass away.

**If you felt pride in welcoming these new humans into our world, what would the world look like?** Consider factors like politics, the economy, the social order and community, technological progress, and the environment. 


What does a better future look like for society? 

You've just imagined futures worth protecting. But those futures aren't guaranteed - they depend in part on the decisions being made right now by the people racing to build AGI, who often have incentives that push away from thoughtful development.

Here, you’ll learn more about the actors shaping the future of AI, including their goals and constraints.


Choose **one** character from [this list](https://bluedot-impact.notion.site/agi-strategy-character-cards?source=copy_link), and read their character card. 

If you're completing this course with a group, post in Slack which character you selected.

Write down 2-3 paragraphs below describing your character's main motivations, capabilities, and external pressures/constraints.

Note that these cards are illustrative - they do NOT capture the true complexity of these characters.


The actors shaping the future of AI

AGI Strategy

Racing to a Better Future

Evaluate the technical trends behind AI progress, and what this implies about the future.

AGI Strategy

The characters

Exercises