The COVID pandemic has shown that the world remains vulnerable to disease outbreaks that have plagued humanity for centuries. Despite extraordinary medical advances, we are still far from building a society secure against biological threats.
Throughout the 17th-19th centuries, fires frequently destroyed major cities worldwide(<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_town_and_city_fires>). We developed safety regulations and fireproof materials to prevent outbreaks, smoke alarms to detect them, and fire brigades to quickly snuff them out. Although fire still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths(<https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause>) each year, a world this fire-proof would have been unthinkable to a 17th-century onlooker.
This week, we invite you to envision a world similarly proofed against pandemics – one better able to prevent, detect, and respond to disease outbreaks. Over the next 8 weeks, we will discuss technologies, policies, and organisations that could bring this closer to reality.
A pandemic-proof world must prepare for various biological threats, both naturally-arising and human-released (accidentally or deliberately). We will consider the history of outbreaks from each of these sources, and considerations for how we might prepare for each.
Importantly, we will also address 'information hazards' – the potential risks associated with sharing sensitive information about biological threats – and establish norms for responsible and effective discussions throughout the course.

By the end of the unit, you should be able to:
\- Understand how biosecurity is defined in various contexts, and how these relate to the focus of this course.
\- Explain key differences between naturally-arising outbreaks, and those accidentally- and deliberately-released by humans.
\- Define the concept of ‘information hazards’ and set sensible norms for future discussions in this course.


Resources: Building a Pandemic-Proof World

Exercises: Building a Pandemic-Proof World

_We recommend you spend ~20 minutes on this exercise._

**Pick one of the three categories of outbreaks: natural, accidental or deliberate. Tell your cohort in Slack which one you have picked.**

**(15 mins) Research an example of a historical outbreak from the category you have chosen. **

Feel free to use one of [these examples](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SCzwIFThVQ7DYEaaIhIol1socBW4szvI4LUib6ACbdM/edit?usp=sharing), or one from your own research. You will be asked in your discussion to teach the details of this outbreak to a fellow participant.

- What was the pathogen involved?
- Where and how did the outbreak emerge in humans?
- If there were any human actors involved in the outbreak, who were they and what were their motivations?
- How was the outbreak ultimately suppressed?

**(5 mins) Consider future outbreaks from the category you have chosen. What characteristics are they likely to have?**

- How likely is it that the pathogen will already be known?
- Where might initial outbreaks occur and how might the disease spread?
    - Would it likely be a single origin or multiple?
- Which human actors/organisations might be involved?
- Which human actors/organisations would be best placed to respond?



[Exercise 1 of 2] Natural, accidental and deliberate outbreak origins

_We recommend you spend ~20 minutes on this exercise._

**Imagine the year is 2050 and the world is much more pandemic-proof than it is today. What kinds of technologies, policies and organisations exist, and how might we get there?**

We encourage you to use your existing expertise, as well as taking inspiration from the ‘Pandemic Prevention as Fire-Fighting’ article or other research. 

This is only a starting point and we don’t expect comprehensive answers – use this as a brainstorming exercise to think of a broad range of ideas. We’ll dig deeper into some of these interventions later in the course.

Things you might want to consider:

- **What could a day in your life look like? **
    - What technologies might you interact with that prevent you catching or transmitting pathogens?

- **What could we copy from emergency preparedness and response in other settings (fire, war, cyber etc.)?**
    - Are there analogous technologies, policies or organisations in those areas that we could build in the biosecurity space?

- **Which existing technologies would make the world significantly more pandemic-proof if produced and distributed globally?**
    - How might we scale up production and incentivise equitable global distribution of these technologies?

Consider grouping your ideas into outbreak prevention, detection and response (note these categories aren’t always clear-cut!).



[Exercise 2 of 2] Envisaging a pandemic-proof world

Pandemics

How do we make pandemics a thing of the past?

Building a Pandemic-Proof World

How could new technologies both increase and reduce the risk of pandemics?

Pandemic Risk Over the Coming Decades

What does it take to prevent the first human infection?

Preventing Patient Zero

How do we stop a local outbreak from becoming a global disaster?

Detecting and Containing Early Infections

How can governments minimise harms when a pandemic spreads worldwide?

Governmental Response to a Global Pandemic

How could new innovations help us prepare for and prevent future pandemics?

Technologies to Strengthen Future Pandemic Response

Make high-stakes decisions in a simulated pandemic scenario.

Pandemics

Resources: Building a Pandemic-Proof World

Resources (50 mins)